Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 23.202877 25.230139 27.412983 29.948216 32.824497 36.001384 39.796484
2026-02-08 19.860344 22.625992 25.809455 29.785101 34.674641 40.569314 48.335393
2026-02-15 17.542408 20.693117 24.508574 29.554005 36.183833 44.799363 57.198880
2026-02-22 15.841904 19.203298 23.441196 29.313430 37.473045 48.797360 66.472873
2026-03-01 14.579814 18.075477 22.633468 29.206954 38.801044 52.936800 76.766728
2026-03-08 13.552195 17.121975 21.911402 29.062073 39.963679 56.928677 87.703397
2026-03-15 13.049653 16.806743 21.997286 30.032678 42.868599 64.086085 105.962311
2026-03-22 12.261136 16.016006 21.317481 29.752193 43.720196 67.941343 119.197817
2026-03-29 11.641434 15.408570 20.837195 29.702547 44.906663 72.558967 135.450383
2026-04-05 11.183178 14.994604 20.598868 29.993000 46.688602 78.603863 157.103032
2026-04-12 10.670062 14.460126 20.127080 29.837209 47.629138 83.158174 177.014142
2026-04-19 10.201351 13.959556 19.665432 29.642509 48.454071 87.624363 198.714641
2026-04-26 9.788843 13.528709 19.296822 29.597912 49.616648 93.228943 227.195518
2026-05-03 9.382206 13.083535 18.874405 29.418523 50.495169 98.434766 257.847144
2026-05-10 8.999441 12.653293 18.445587 29.184020 51.226884 103.489710 291.677048
2026-05-17 8.647628 12.252011 18.036627 28.944774 51.912304 108.621654 330.063395
2026-05-24 8.347415 11.916693 17.715572 28.839042 52.873623 114.773236 378.726543
2026-05-31 8.063699 11.592815 17.392146 28.696269 53.729126 120.893520 434.107606
2026-06-07 7.976693 11.585406 17.615047 29.649508 57.300318 136.313857 562.865724
2026-06-14 7.704867 11.256593 17.248431 29.373943 57.849778 142.402193 644.251982
2026-06-21 7.484662 11.003902 17.002648 29.325151 58.964701 150.827104 760.530653
2026-06-28 7.325706 10.847007 16.920048 29.610426 60.993184 163.332742 945.790274
2026-07-05 7.115974 10.593497 16.644887 29.457405 61.833567 171.777757 1120.032124